Brady's Surprise Package

Brady

Otter

Political insiders and pundits who presumed Idaho is on its way to the Butch Otter coronation got their comeuppance last week. Among them is this page. which has treated the election as a foregone conclusion and Democrat Jerry Brady’s candidacy as Quixotic.

It turns out Brady is very much in the race for governor.

However you measure it, Brady outperformed Otter in the latest fundraising period. He raised more money. He got more of it from Idaho and more of it in smaller checks. And while Otter still has a larger bank account, Brady’s resources are competitive.

Granted, the bragging rights are only for a five-week period in May and early June. So you can overstate the significance of this — but you can’t ignore it.

Otter is the Republican nominee in an overwhelmingly Republican state. He hasn’t lost an election since 1978. He’s extremely good on the stump. He’s an incumbent congressman who parlayed his organizational and fundraising advances into a bloodless primary victory. Gov. Jim Risch, who then was sitting in the No. 2 chair, opted not to even challenge Otter in the primary and is seeking his old job as lieutenant governor.

Brady lost his last bid against then-Gov. Dirk Kempthorne. He’s not an accomplished campaigner. He’s a Democrat in a state where party loyalty gets you less than a fifth of the voters.

What does this tell you?

Where you get money is more important than how much. An Idaho voter who contributes $50 will vote for that candidate. A Washington, D.C.-based political action committee may deliver $10,000, but no voters.

Money buys air time on television, but retail politics still dominate. After all, Idaho is a place where the ordinary farmer calls his senator Larry, his congressman Mike and his governor Dirk or Jim.

So doing something right in the field matters — and Brady’s doing just that.

Maybe it’s a sign of grass-roots support. Or it reflects his campaign’s prowess at raising money. Either way, it lends credibility to his campaign at a critical time.

In contrast, eight years ago, just the reverse happened to Democratic candidate Robert Huntley. A credible poll said he had no chance against Kempthorne — and support and cash donations disappeared.

Can Brady keep it up? The next campaign fundraising report isn’t due until October.

But for now, he has delivered the first real surprise in an Idaho gubernatorial campaign in at least a dozen years.

Marty Trillhaase

By the numbers

For the period from May 8 through June 2:

Jerry Brady:

n Raised $145,155

n Cash on hand: $380,000

n Individual donors: 90 percent

n Idaho sources: 88 percent

n Small contributors ($200 and under): 49 percent

n Unitemized (under $50): $3,715

Butch Otter:

n Raised $116,933

n Cash on hand: $500,000

n Individual donors: 73 percent

n Idaho sources: 78 percent

n Small contributors ($200 and under): 35 percent

n Unitemized (under $50): $1,906